Ad Supply Is Outstripping Demand, Says JWP Connatix
“We are entering an era of excess supply [of ad inventory] on streaming,” declares Brian Rifkin, co-founder and SVP of Global Partnerships at video tech and monetization platform JWP Connatix. "In the U.S, FAST channels have taken off. People are buying new TVs that are equipped with digital technology that is naturally driving people into streaming combined with the additional downward pressure from the high cost of cable. Those two effects are creating a boom in streaming and a tremendous amount of supply outweighing demand. We're seeing the same trend begin in Europe, in the UK with [broadcaster-backed] Freely, but adoption there has definitely been slower.”
For all the noise about streaming eclipsing linear, Rifkin reckons the balance is still about 50/50 but the direction of travel is one way. “Over the next years the supply of ad inventory to streaming is only going to increase. The market has already been flooded this last year as a result of Netflix and Amazon Prime opening up a lot more of their inventory.”
Filling the Open Programmatic Gap
He identifies the biggest gap in open programmatic, where publishers put part of their inventory on the open market making it available for buying partners to bid on. “There's very limited open programmatic spend in CTV unlike on the open web. I believe we're going to see more of a buyer's market from the advertiser’s side for the foreseeable future in terms of buying runs of network inventory for all of streaming. Then you're going to see companies that have developed deep sales teams perform the best because they'll be able to do direct selling, and bring that those up dollars onto the platforms.”
It’s estimated that 2026 will see $726 billion spent on programmatic advertising, with this rising to $779 by 2028.
“The decision on where you spend your ad dollars and how you get that return on investment - I don't see that being handed over to any kind of AI tool completely,” Rifkin says. “I think it's still got to be in control of the company, the brand, the agencies, on how you execute those buys.”
JWP and Connatix Post-Merger
JW Player and Connatix merged last October and claims to be the largest independent video technology and monetization platform for broadcasters, publishers, and advertisers. It boasts over 2,000 elite blue-chip customers, including 80% of the top 25 comScore US publishers. Over 1 billion people are said to view video through its technology every month.
“This massive data footprint combined with full stack advertising and content technology, enable us to far exceed the 15bn ad impressions that we are already delivering each month,” says Rifkin who co-founded JW Player in 2007. “Not many companies in the world can do this and today, we are already doing this. The merger enabled us to double down on our expertise and capitalize on our advantage in the market.”
Since April, the company has been led by CEO John Nardone, who joined from MediaOcean. “The thesis of why we're coming together is starting to play out,” says Rifkin. “JWP had a great footprint in both publishing and broadcast offering a VOD and live service and a rich video stack. We always supported the ad ecosystem and helped our publishers do the right thing, but generating the ad revenue was always on them. By merging with Connatix we brought that piece into our stack, so we can offer demand to our publishers as well. So far, the focus of that has been primarily in the U.S and some in the UK."
Just In Time SSAI
A key area of company focus is an end-to-end platform for VOD and live. It has invested in Server Side Ad Insertion (SSAI) and contextual video technology to help publishers straddling both linear and streaming to more effectively monetize their content.
“If you think about a typical broadcast publisher, they've used stitching in most of their streaming and a lot of them now have an on-demand section. That's become a big business as more and more customers want to consumer on-demand. You don't want to switch your server over to a client side and make it more complicated because all your connections are already built on the SSAI solution. So we’ve built a tool called Just In Time SSAI that mimics the behavior of SSAI for live with on demand. We think it's got a lot of benefits to the streaming world.”
He predicts “tremendous growth” in live streaming whether entertainment, news or sports. “Across the board, whether it's existing linear businesses that wants to move over or a direct to consumer businesses that wants to stream live to customers instead of going through a third-party platform, live just continues to grow. That’s not to say live is as easy as flicking a switch. Underneath it all there's a lot of complexity including playing out from the physical venue but we don’t see any future in which live stops growing.”
With LA film stage usage down 63% in 2024, threats of tariffs targeting productions made outside the U.S and near global economic downturn, the content and advertising business is suffering.
“Humans are not good with uncertainty and especially when it comes to marketing. People cannot forecast as they would in a normal scenario because of the political uncertainty in the world. It's caused some hesitation from brands. I hope it gets worked out as we go into the second half of year which is where you traditionally have most of your spend.”
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