Transcoding Forecast, 2020-2030: Key Findings
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Alex Davies: This, broadly, is the headline graph. What I will do is walk you through the process that we used to come up with this. Down at the bottom, we have the colors. The orange line at the top AVC, and then our media and entertainment transcoding workload through 2030, where you see it finally starts falling off. The line below it is HEVC. But, as Jan was saying at the beginning, in the old world there used to be a duopoly or a dichotomy at least, and now there's a plethora of options, a few to choose from. So this is the forecast.
The headline is the MPEG family, the share of transcoding workload falls from about 92% down to about 73.
Annual video devices: There'll be 2.6 billion units sold a year in 2030, so that's a very big footprint to consider. and what we wanted to do is try to give an illustrative example for how much this would be worth. We used a pretty wide total addressable market criteria definition there. And the end result is that we move from a total addressable market of about 3.87 billion today to 8.42 billion in 2030.
This is a bit of context. What you can see on the top graph is time spent watching The top line is our live television channels. 1,200 billion minutes per day watched. You can see it's gradually trending down.
The line below is over-the-top content that is watched on television, delivered over the internet, not delivered over the proprietary cable and satellite networks of yore. You'll see that one is racing up to reach it. This access is to 2026. We can see that over-the-top viewing on large screens is ticking up. The gray line underneath that one is smartphones; no surprise there that one's ticking up as well.
But if you look at the bottom graph, you can see how the total viewing time is growing, as there are more video devices out in the world.
So, just to sum that up, there's a greater need for transcoding to support these video-on-demand services, as well as live over-the-top content.
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